Monday, March 7, 2022

How the GOP could gerrymander the electoral college

Three midterm governor’s races could determine the fate of American democracy.

Though Joe Biden won the popular vote by more than seven million ballots in 2020, his electoral college victory over Donald Trump was very slim—fewer than 43,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin separated the candidates. Biden’s win was helped by unusually high turnout, fueled largely by expanded mail voting.

There was no evidence of widespread voter fraud in 2020, but Republicans in state governments have used Trump’s “Big Lie” narrative as a cover to try to transfer election oversight from bipartisan boards to partisan Republican officials in PennsylvaniaMichigan, and GeorgiaIf successful, these moves could allow Republicans to refuse to certify presidential election results they don’t like, leading to a constitutional crisis.

But the GOP could avoid a messy public fight by suppressing Democratic turnout in key states to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for the Democratic candidate to win the electoral college. Prevailing at the ballot box (by any means necessary) could give the Republican candidate a patina of legitimacy among a critical mass of the American public and press, ending democracy with a whimper, rather than a bang.

 

To this end, Republican legislatures have muscled through dozens of voter suppression bills on party-line votes. Senate bill 1 in Texas received a lot of media attention, but Democrats haven’t won Texas since 1976. The 2024 presidential race will likely be decided in the five states which flipped from Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020. The GOP would need to win three of these states to regain the White House. They could be well on their way.

 

Last year, the Georgia legislature passed Senate bill 202 (SB 202), also known as “The Election Integrity Act of 2021.” SB 202 bans public officials from sending out unsolicited absentee ballots, reduces the window of time allowed to request or return absentee ballots, and increases ID requirements for absentee ballots. SB 202 also limits the number of absentee-ballot drop boxes and the hours drop boxes are available.

 

These changes will disproportionately harm Democrats in a state where Biden received 65% of the absentee vote. The omnibus bill will have an especially adverse effect on Black and Latinx voters, who wait around 45% longer to vote in person and have faced notoriously long lines in Georgia.

 

Arizona’s legislature passed SB 1485, which purges infrequent voters from the early voting list, and SB 1003, which limits the amount of time voters have to fix unsigned absentee ballots. Both bills will likely have an inordinate impact on voters of color. If historical patterns hold, and Arizona Republicans expand their majorities in the 2022 midterms, they might be able to pass other laws which restrict the franchise, including HB 2793, which prohibits automatic voter registration.

 

Taken together, these bills could tip the balance in a state Biden won by only 10,543 votes, where nearly 90% voted by mail in 2020 and 75% are registered on permanent early voting lists.

If the GOP legislation works as designed, Arizona and Georgia—the two tightest contests in 2020—may effectively be gerrymandered in the 2024 presidential election.  

Which would leave Democratic hopes tied to the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which have Republican legislatures eager to follow Georgia’s lead and Democratic governors up for re-election in 2022. To ensure that America has a legitimate presidential election in 2024, Democrats may need to run the table in these races.

Michigan’s Republican-led legislature is trying to slip absentee ballot restrictions and voter ID laws (which could harm Black voters) past Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Taking advantage of an obscure provision in the state Constitution which has only been used nine times in the past 58 years, Republicans are attempting to gather 340,000 signatures—less than 10% of the number of voters who cast ballots in the last gubernatorial race—for the “Secure MI Vote” initiative.

If 340,000 signatures are collected in a six-month span, Republicans will pass the bill into law while avoiding Whitmer’s veto pen. If they fail to get the signatures needed but Whitmer loses her re-election bid, a new Republican governor would rubber-stamp any of several dozen voter suppression bills drawn up by Republican legislators.

 

Joe Biden won Wisconsin by just 20,000 votes out of more than three million cast. If Democratic Gov. Tony Evers loses his bid for re-election bid this fall, the GOP legislature has voter suppression legislation ready which would harm disabled Wisconsinites and make it very challenging for a Democratic presidential candidate to win the state.

 

Even if Whitmer and Evers win, the GOP could cement control in Pennsylvania, where the Republican legislature passed House Bill 1300. The “Voting Rights Protection Act” toughens voter ID requirements, reduces the window of time to register to vote and request absentee ballots, and limits the use of absentee ballot drop boxes. Democratic governor Tom Wolf vetoed the bill; his Republican opponent in 2022 would have no such reluctance.  

Given the polarized and closely-divided nature of the U.S. electorate, a big enough voter suppression boost in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin in conjunction with the same in Arizona and Georgia could give the Republican presidential candidate a virtual mathematical lock on the electoral college in 2024.  

A Republican presidential victory would further strengthen the right-wing tilt of the federal courts and the erosion of voting rights for the foreseeable future. 

Optimists believed that the 2020 election proved the system works, as Republican judges and state officials followed the rule of law despite Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the election results. 

 

2021 showed that the ranks of Republicans willing to oppose undemocratic power grabs is smaller than expected.

 

The 2022 midterms could determine whether U.S. democracy stays on life support or flatlines.


       A shorter version of this piece appeared originally at 

the Progressive and was later picked up by the Miami Herald and MSN News


                                                 Follow Dan Benbow on Twitter      


More political writing by Dan Benbow:

A dress rehearsal for fascism: the complete January 6 timeline 

ANATOMY OF A MAN-MADE DISASTER1,001 ways Donald Trump failed
to protect America from the coronavirus

The Master of Low Expectations:  666 reasons sentient citizens

 are still celebrating the long overdue departure of George W. Bush

The breathtaking stupidity of #BernieOrBust

Death of a President in the United States of Amnesia

 (a review of the public life of George H.W. Bush)

Aliens, unicorns, and the narcissism 

of voting Green

10 reasons Barack Obama is clearly

the best president in my lifetime

178 reasons Hillary Clinton is infinitely better

than Donald Trump (even on her worst day)




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